Ukraine conflict briefing

2.9%

The World Bank has lowered its global growth forecast from 4.1% to 2.9%, with a warning that many countries may see recessions.

3.3%

GlobalData forecasts that the world economy will grow at just 3.3% in 2022 following 5.9% growth in 2021.

The conflict continues to create major uncertainties for global food supplies. After a period of easing, prices of grains and oilseeds have begun to escalate again as several other exporting countries have introduced schemes to limit exports and preserve domestic supplies.

Even after a possible end to the conflict, there are significant downside risks to Ukraine’s current 2022/23 grain and oilseed crops, and a lack of supplies such as fertiliser will reduce yields from spring and, most likely, next year’s winter crops.

3 million

Ukraine is seeking to export three million tonnes of grain stocks from its Black Sea ports each month.

5 months

The Ukraine-Russia war has passed the five-month mark, following the 24 February invasion.

Ukraine is seeking to restart exports of grain following the signing of a UN-backed agreement with Russia, which will be overseen by NATO member Turkey. The loss of Ukrainian grain on the world market has created a global shortage and threatens to plunge many countries into food poverty. The waters around Ukraine’s ports have been heavily mined to prevent an invasion by sea, and also to prevent a breakout by Ukraine’s naval assets from breaking out.

More than five months into the war, Russia has prioritised the seizing of the Donbas region, where it is likely hasty elections will be organized by pro-Russian figures installed in occupied region. Ukraine is attempting to conduct a counterattack in the south of the country near the city of Kherson utilizing western-supplied equipment to strike at key infrastructure to isolate Russian forces.