Mind over matter

Analysing the vast quantities of data delivered in the modern battlespace can be demanding. Credit: Peoplemages.com-YuriA / Shutterstock

Amid a proliferation of data in the modern battlespace, the end-user must be able to exploit the information to create an effective response. Marko Kaseleht, six-tour combat veteran and co-founder of Estonia’s SensusQ, spoke to Global Defence Technology about Winning Mind, the start-up’s Internet of Things offering which brings together various sources of real-time data from UAVs, cameras, and sensors.

Intended to provide for swift decision-making, heightened security, and aid in the prevention of intelligence failures, Winning Mind has already been actively deployed in Ukraine. What is unique, however, is Kaseleht’s argument to appropriately contextualise information gathered from the battlespace.

These insights will prove more significant in response to Russian military aggression in central and eastern Europe, where smaller countries need to be able to muster an asymmetric advantage over a much larger force.

Marko Kaseleht: The situation is that we have UAVs, we have different kinds of sensors, on the ground, stationary, and movable. We also have different kinds of software, satellite imagery and open-source intelligence tools. These are, altogether, overwhelming the end user.

If we increase the means to capture information, we are unable to increase the people putting this information into context. Right now, there is no place to install AI. Everybody has different kinds of procedures for how it would work – there is no standard baseline.

We aim to digitise the whole intelligence cycle from collection to exploitation to sharing; we have created a baseline.

Winning Mind has an open architecture, meaning that whatever existing technologies the end-user has they can implement and install to our premises, making sure that they will be part of this cycle. 

In addition, we have done this with the principle that we [SensusQ] do not want to have any access to end users’ information.

So, the system that we have developed installs into the end-user’s premises, meaning that they are the sole owners of this information and are free to decide what to do with that information.

When it comes down to the AI, we have created our very first AI models that mostly focus on the visual recognition. So, trying to identify different kinds of targets on the battlefield, but now we’re developing our own contextual models that can connect information semi-automatically. Though, the responsibility for the decision always relies on a human, they are the ones who are making decisions. 

Marko Kaseleht: ​​​​​​​We haven’t been very good when it comes down to information management. Let’s think back to Afghanistan or Iraq: how can it be that our intelligence cycle didn’t perceive the situations, especially in Afghanistan? Somehow everybody was surprised that the government collapsed over two-and-a-half weeks [in 2021].

Looking back, we can now assess that the war in Afghanistan was already lost in back in 2012, when President Obama said they’re going to withdraw the troops, and the only thing the Taliban had to do was wait.

So, information management has been in a limping role, I would say, because as I described before, more assets mean more people in HQ to anlayse this information. What is the intelligence picture here? It is not what is happening, but why those things are happening. It is about how everything is connected.

The second thing: intelligence has to forecast things. You can only forecast things when you understand what is currently happening, and why it’s happening. I would say that we haven’t so much focused on contextualising the information, there aren’t so many tools.

Marko Kaseleht: ​​​​​​​It depends on the end user’s capabilities, limitations and restrictions. As I mentioned, it can be a server, it can be a cloud. Winning Mind sits at the highest level of this intelligence cycle, because every different kind of intelligence source – is it open source intelligence? Is it whatever other intelligence? –  they are just one source for us.

The aim is to contextualise what is happening on a battlefield based on the end user’s context. So, where they are, and when and where they want to take this. You can integrate different UAVs with existing battlefield management system, and also some open source intelligence sources is bad, and then start to do something what is called information confirmation. You can start to receive information from different kinds of angles, and you can start to build your own craft diagrams on top of that.

In the end, it will be stored in inside of your knowledge pyramid, and afterwards, when you want to track back into history or see how the things were connected, and our situation has progressed. Then you have all those variety of sources connected in there inside of a common intelligence picture. 

Marko Kaseleht: ​​​​​​​Right now, our main focus is on central and eastern Europe. Every country that has a border with Russia needs this kind of tool, at least in our opinion. Yes, defence budgets are increasing, but 99% of this is going to armour, bullets and ammunition.

So the question that I’ve been asking from the smaller European countries who share the border with Russia has been: okay, we’re seeing that Ukraine is going force on force with Russia, but that doesn’t make any sense for a small country like Estonia. We assume that we can go force on force with the enemy, so we actually have to do things in a much smarter way.

I believe that we haven’t fully focused on building up the ecosystem. First of all, it’s very hard to understand how to do it exactly. I believe that defence industry should be divided like a classical conventional defence industry and this innovative defence industry.

Whereas this classical industry is more like equity investments, and it’s a very common road; how you go forward is through this innovative industry as more like a startup approach. We just have to understand what kind of parts of the ecosystem the countries have, and then how to exploit them. 

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The dominance of China in the rare earths space has also encouraged other countries, notably the US, to look further afield for rare earth deposits to diversify their supply of the increasingly vital minerals. With the US eager to ringfence rare earth production within its allies as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, including potentially allowing the Department of Defense to invest in Australian rare earths, there could be an unexpected windfall for Australian rare earths producers.