- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 7 July

The total number of Covid-19 vaccine doses administered has now surpassed the total number of confirmed cases. China leads in the total number of vaccinations.

Covid-19 has already affected our lives forever. The way we work, shop, eat, seek medical advice, socialise, participate in sport, and entertain ourselves will all be different. all industries must plan ahead for multiple eventualities.

2.9 billion

The total single vaccine doses administered.

4.1 million

The number of Brazilians who have not returned for a second dose.

Global real GDP growth

% change on previous year

2.6%

-3.7%

5.4%

Pre-Covid-19 2020 forecast

Adjusted 2020 forecast

2021 consensus
forecast

The cost of Covid-19

$375bn

Estimated monthly cost of the Covid-19 pandemic globally

$11tn

Cumulative loss for global economy over the next two years

- The road to economic recovery -

The global economy is forecast to return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021 or early 2022.

The global economy is projected to grow at record speed in 2021, but the outlook is uncertain and will depend on the effectiveness and distribution of the vaccines and on continued fiscal and monetary support. Recovery will be uneven across countries, sectors, and income levels.

China was the only major economy to achieve positive GDP growth in 2020. Covid-19 related exports led the economic recovery. In 2021, China is expected to account for 27% of global economic growth - more than twice as much as the US.

- SECTOR IMPACT: Aerospace, defence and security -

Defence markets, although relatively shielded from both immediate demand and supply-side shocks, are looking vulnerable in many parts of the world as national debates are ignited around fiscal priorities.

However, countries with large domestic capacity are using defence as a stimulus measure and to offset impact in related aerospace markets. Both the US & UK defence markets have seen significant uplift as a result.

Sector indices

A complex and interdependent relationship between the aerospace and defence markets spreads the pain. Targeted government aid to support sovereign capability will be instrumental in these sectors

Sub-sector impact

Revenue predictions

Boeing and Airbus post unprecedented losses throughout the year, with last quarter being the worst on record for the global aerospace industry.


Defence is being used as a stimulus measure in markets with large domestic capacity, particularly the US, but there will be medium-term constraint due to fiscal pressures.

Military aerospace: moderate negative impact

Supply chain disruption from commercial aerospace impact and Covid-19 overall, and possible impact on low TRL-level programmes or legacy support programmes in favour of active production lines as an immediate stimulus measure.

Land platforms: moderate negative impact

Elements of limited exposure to broader automotive industry supply chains but little impact on programmes so far. Higher levels of domestic capability across regions compared to naval and aerospace and less regulated supply chains mean future readjustment should be easier and quicker.

Naval shipbuilding: moderate negative impact

Mostly short-term production challenges. Defence demand impact only extant in the medium term.

C4ISR and EW: moderate positive impact

Military cybersecurity and IT sub-sectors well positioned in the medium term as a result of demands on distributed working and secure collaboration. Logistic IT specialists also stand to benefit, with new Enterprise Resource Planning implementations for supply chain tracking.

Credit: L3Harris

Homeland security/soldier systems: moderate positive impact

Thermal imaging cameras, decontamination systems, deployable medical capabilities and personal protective equipment submarkets are seeing immediate boosts.

Unmanned systems: moderate positive impact

Demand for small form-factor drones has increased, with adjustment of civil aviation restrictions being made to allow for this in many regions. Precedent may result in permanent relaxation of current rules and greater adoption.

Simulation and training: moderate positive impact

Likely to hasten the adoption of distributed synthetic training environments in the medium term. Required enabling technologies across C4ISR also stand to benefit.