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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -
Latest update: 6 May
After months of decline, GDP estimates for many countries have turned positive.
According to the OECD, the unemployment rate in OECD nations stood at 6.7% in February 2021.
The IMF has raised its world economic growth forecast for 2021 to 6% from its earlier projection of 5.5% in January.
The ifo Institute of Germany has cut its 2021 economic growth forecast for the country to 3.7% from its earlier projection of 4.2%.
Global real GDP growth
% change on previous year
Pre-Covid-19 2020 forecast
Adjusted 2020 forecast
The cost of Covid-19
Estimated monthly cost of the Covid-19 pandemic globally
Cumulative loss for global economy over the next two years
- The road to economic recovery -
The global economy is forecast to return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021 or early 2022.
The global economy is projected to grow at record speed in 2021, but the outlook is uncertain and will depend on the effectiveness and distribution of the vaccines and on continued fiscal and monetary support. Recovery will be uneven across countries, sectors, and income levels.
China was the only major economy to achieve positive GDP growth in 2020. Covid-19 related exports led the economic recovery. In 2021, China is expected to account for 27% of global economic growth - more than twice as much as the US.
- SECTOR IMPACT: Aerospace, defence and security -
Defence markets are starting to look vulnerable in many parts of the world as national debates are ignited around fiscal priorities. The future role of the military in supporting civil contingency planning is also under consideration.
Western supply chain concerns stemming from Chinese-US rivalry have been exacerbated by Covid-19. This will result in greater FDI scrutiny, multisourcing and onshoring in key product areas such as microelectronics.
The interdependent relationship between aerospace and defence has helped to cushion the impact of Covid-19 on companies working across both segments. Targeted government aid will be instrumental to recovery in these sectors.