- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 21 October 

Real GDP growth is expected to bounce back in 2021 if the spread of Covid-19 is controlled by the end of the year, with all major economies set to grow.

The World Trade Organization forecasts the volume of merchandise trade to shrink by 9.2% in 2020, followed by an estimated rise of 7.2% in 2021.

-4.4%

The IMF has revised its 2020 global GDP forecast to -4.4% from an estimate of -4.9% made in June.

 88-115 million

Covid-19 will push 88-115 million people into extreme poverty in 2020, according to the World Bank.

Global real GDP growth

% change on previous year

21%

1.8%

-3.8%

Pre-Covid-19 2020 forecast

2019 average

Adjusted 2020 forecast

The cost of Covid-19

$375bn

Estimated monthly cost of th Covid-19 pandemic globally

$12tn

Cumulative loss for global economy over the next two years

- SECTOR IMPACT: Aerospace, defence and security -

Latest update: 4 November

Defence markets, although relatively shielded from both immediate demand and supply side shocks, are now starting to look vulnerable in many parts of the world as national debates are ignited around fiscal priorities.

The future role of the military in supporting civil contingency planning is under consideration in several countries, as is a redefinition of security to implicitly encompass protecting public health and biosecurity aspects.

Sector indices

The interdependent relationship between aerospace and defence has helped to cushion the impact of Covid-19 on companies working across both segments. Targeted government aid will be instrumental to recovery in these sectors.

Revenue predictions

Supply and demand disruption

Sector focus: armoured vehicles

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