Latest update: 20 January

 World Bank forecasts global economic growth at 4% in 2021 as vaccine rollout becomes widespread, following an estimated 4.3% contraction in 2020.

 Chinese economy expands by 6.5% in Q4 2020, taking the full year growth to 2.3% in 2020, according to National Bureau of Statistics.


  Consensus forecast for world GDP growth in 2020


  Unemployment rate in the US in December 2020, unchanged from the previous month

Global real GDP growth

% change on previous year




Pre-Covid-19 2020 forecast

Adjusted 2020 forecast

2021 consensus

The cost of Covid-19


Estimated monthly cost of the Covid-19 pandemic globally


Cumulative loss for global economy over the next two years

- SECTOR IMPACT: Aerospace, defence and security -

Latest update: 8 January

Defence markets, although relatively shielded from both immediate demand and supply side shocks, are now starting to look vulnerable in many parts of the world as national debates are ignited around fiscal priorities.

Western supply chain concerns stemming from Chinese-US rivalry have been exacerbated by Covid-19. This will result in greater FDI scrutiny, multisourcing and onshoring in key product areas such as microelectronics.

Sector indices

The interdependent relationship between aerospace and defence has helped to cushion the impact of Covid-19 on companies working across both segments. Targeted government aid will be instrumental to recovery in these sectors.

Revenue predictions

Impact on major companies

Sub-sector impact

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