Australia was the first country to adopt the E-7A Wedgetail. Credit: Gordon Arthur

Defence procurement is a complex balance of budgets, timelines, and requirements, all of which compete to gain primacy in the argument, as national governments, for the main, seek to generate the minimum-required capability at the lowest possible price.

For the UK, currently embarking on a large-scale modernisation across its military, the timeline argument is perhaps the most acute with dozens of platforms due to leave operational service over the next decade.

This is particularly critical in the land and naval domains, where the British Army and Royal Navy contend with empty inventories and obsolescent capability.

Broken down by the land, sea, and air domains, Global Defence Technology investigates the out-of-service dates for key UK Armed Forces platforms and replacement programmes. The list is not exhaustive, but rather indicative of areas of specific strength and weakness. 

One key programme that will affect by a number of European operators is the evolution of the Type 212A conventional diesel-electric submarine (SSKs) design. Three nations are building on this legacy model in two different variations: first, the German and Norwegian Type 212 Common Design (CD) and second, Italy’s U212 Near Future Submarine (NFS).

It will also be valuable to examine how these changes differ from the capabilities offered by other European SSK designs, including the Dutch Orka class and Swedish Bleckinge-class submarines.

The British Army is the focus of several platform replacement programmes, although delays have resulted in confusion among industry, while some capabilities have been lost in their entirety.

Some of the above-mentioned platforms will be replaced by the incoming Boxer Mechanised Infantry Vehicle (MIV), a platform slowly being introduced into British Army service. In November 2019, 523 Boxer vehicles were ordered in four build configurations, covering eleven different roles, with a contract placed for a further 100 units in April 2022.

However, on a purely numerical basis, the currently planned 623 Boxers will not replace the in excess of 1,500 vehicles the British Army will be retiring from service by the end of the decade, as the long-delayed Land Mobility Programme continues to stutter.

Capability gaps include virtually no long-range 155mm artillery (just 14 Archer systems obtained from Sweden) until at least 2029 and likely beyond, low munitions stockpiles on account of Ukraine donations, and little reserve materiel, for similar reasons. 

In a parlous state, the Royal Navy has just a handful of functioning major surface combatants, and capability gapping its ability to effectively perform amphibious assault operations. Of all carrier-capable navies, it is the most top heavy, with the two Queen Elizabeth-class vessels representing the largest proportion of naval tonnage of the surface fleet among Nato members.

Of particular concern will be the loss of the Royal Navy’s vaunted mine countermeasure (MCM) capabilities, which is being transitioned to uncrewed platforms. Such systems will be vulnerable in non-permissive environments like the Strait of Hormuz, where Royal Navy MCMVs were highly regarded by the US Navy.

Incoming platforms such as the Type 31 and Type 26 frigates are capable but will not arrive fast enough to prevent the Royal Navy service fleet dropping further still.

The Royal Air Force, in contrast to the UK’s other two services, is at the other end of a recapitalisation process, having introduced new fighters, maritime patrol aircraft, strategic transporters, and electronic warfare platforms.

The UK government recently committed to the switching the next batch of vertical take-off and landing variant F-35B fighters for 12 of the conventional F-35A variants, in what was perceived as a win for the Royal Air Force in acquiring the non-naval type.

Further down the pipeline a replacement jet trainer aircraft will need to be found, and there is a concern at the service’s relatively small numbers of fighters (107 Tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons post 2027 and ~48 F-35s by 2026), but broadly, the RAF is in good health.

There is a notable capability gap in airborne early warning aircraft since the dismemberment of the Nimrod fleet, but the UK is close to bringing into service the first of three E-7 Wedgetail aircraft, due to begin entering service in 2026. 

To modernise the platform, via an April request for information, the USAF is canvassing the inclusion of a new radar, electronic warfare equipment and enhanced

communications to create an “Advanced E-7”. Two such examples are sought within seven years, after which other E-7s could be retrofitted with the modifications.

As for the UK, three 737NG aircraft are currently undergoing modification in Birmingham, the first completing its maiden flight in September 2024.

Global Defence Technology asked Boeing what makes the E-7 stand out, and a spokesperson listing three points. First is its allied interoperability. “With the aircraft in service or on contract with Australia, South Korea, Türkiye, the UK and USA – and selected by Nato – its unmatched interoperability benefits a growing global user community for integration in future allied and coalition operations.”

Lisa Sheridan, an International Field Services and Training Systems programme manager at Boeing Defence Australia, said: “Ordinarily, when a C-17 is away from a main operating base, operators don’t have access to Boeing specialist maintenance crews, grounding the aircraft for days longer than required.

“ATOM can operate in areas of limited or poor network coverage and could significantly reduce aircraft downtime by quickly and easily connecting operators with Boeing experts anywhere in the world, who can safely guide them through complex maintenance tasks.”

Boeing also uses AR devices in-house to cut costs and improve plane construction times, with engineers at Boeing Research & Technology using HoloLens headsets to build aircraft more quickly.

The headsets allow workers to avoid adverse effects like motion sickness during plane construct, enabling a Boeing factory to produce a new aircraft every 16 hours.

Elsewhere, the US Marine Corps is using AR devices to modernise its aircraft maintenance duties, including to spot wear and tear from jets’ combat landings on aircraft carriers. The landings can cause fatigue in aircraft parts over its lifetime, particularly if the part is used beyond the designers’ original design life.  

Australia could be one of the main beneficiaries of this dramatic increase in demand, where private companies and local governments alike are eager to expand the country’s nascent rare earths production. In 2021, Australia produced the fourth-most rare earths in the world. It’s total annual production of 19,958 tonnes remains significantly less than the mammoth 152,407 tonnes produced by China, but a dramatic improvement over the 1,995 tonnes produced domestically in 2011.

The dominance of China in the rare earths space has also encouraged other countries, notably the US, to look further afield for rare earth deposits to diversify their supply of the increasingly vital minerals. With the US eager to ringfence rare earth production within its allies as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, including potentially allowing the Department of Defense to invest in Australian rare earths, there could be an unexpected windfall for Australian rare earths producers.