Silent Swarm: South America’s attack drone future

In an era of aerial warfare defined by the convergence of fighter jets, drones, and cyber capabilities, loitering munitions offer a hybrid solution that blends the precision of missiles with the flexibility of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs).

The GlobalData Military UAV Market Forecast for 2025–2035 stated that the market, which comprises High-Altitude Long Endurance (HALE), Medium-Altitude Long Endurance (MALE), tethered UAV, loitering munitions, and target drone categories, was valued at $15.1bn in 2025.

It is projected that the market will reach $27.8bn by 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2%. Currently, the MALE segment dominates with a 58.4% share, followed by HALE at 18.2%. While loitering munitions account for 8.4%, growth is expected due to the increased adoption of platforms such as the Iranian Shahed and the US-operated LUCAS.

Regionally, Asia-Pacific is expected to hold the largest UAV market share at 35.6%, followed by Europe at 33.1% and North America at 16.6%. Latin America currently holds a 0.8% share.

Additionally, according to Global Data’s Q3 2025 Strategic Intelligence report, the loitering munition market is anticipated to double this decade. This growth is being driven by increasing military integration and AI's significant role in technological development.

GlobalData Strategic Intelligence reports further that there is potential for military decision-makers to consider the prioritisation of these systems which will drive global production levels to an excess of 100,000 loitering munitions annually by 2029.

With conflicts ongoing in Iran and Ukraine, coupled with one central European country purchasing 10,000 units, the global growth of these platforms for modernisation efforts is not at all unrealistic.

Due to the technologies long endurance, cost-effectiveness relative to manned aircraft, and portability for use on small boats or by personnel on foot, these systems are steadily gaining traction in South America for border control and operations in remote jungle environments.

While the South American loitering munitions market is less than 1% share of the entire sector, it is a largely untapped area that could experience significant growth, driven by revised procurement planning in Brazil, recent acquisitions in Argentina, and international players expanding their industrial footprints.

According to recent GlobalData market analysis, the collective defence expenditure for South America’s primary economies - Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia - was projected to exceed $37bn for the 2024–25 period.

Specifically, the Brazilian defence budget was valued at $23.5bn in 2025; meanwhile, Argentina’s 2024 defence budget stood at $919.7m, and the Colombian defence budget was judged to be worth $13.7bn as of 2024.

Global dynamics and the push for defence expenditures to mirror global GDP trends will undoubtedly shape future procurement pathways. While the South American sector is frequently overlooked, these evolving developments suggest it is a region to observe as a promising contributor to global market growth over the coming decade.

In 2025, Brazil’s UAV budget was judged to be worth $92m, with expectation that it will grow to $148.1m in ten years’ time, according to GlobalData. However, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been relatively outspoken on the use of defence capital versus humanitarian efforts. In April this year, at the In Defence of Democracy summit in Barcelona, he stated: “The world is [not] needing war. We have more than 760 million people going hungry… What cannot happen, what cannot be, is the world spending 2 trillion and 700 billion dollars on weapons while people are going hungry”.

In Q1 2026, the Brazilian Army (Exército Brasileiro) moved forward with a modernisation plan focused on maintaining a technological edge through new procurements. While the exploration of systems such as loitering munitions is currently a priority on their agenda, the political confirmation regarding defence expenditure for this specific budget has not yet been finalised by the Government at time of writing. 

João Bordon, co-founder and principal of Brazil Defense Brief, told Global Defence Technology: “In March 2026, the Brazilian Army presented President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with a modernisation plan valued at $88.4bn, which still awaits approval, aimed at enhancing the country’s deterrence capabilities. A key recommendation highlighted the urgent need for the country to fully enter the ‘drone era’.”

While it remains to be seen if the Brazilian Government will align its defence spending with GDP in accordance with international trends, recent insights from Bordon indicate further that there is significant procurement interest within the Brazilian Army.

Specifically, the Army is considering the acquisition of loitering munitions as part of a broader UAV purchase. These acquisitions fall under three strategic defence programmes, SISFRON (Integrated Border Monitoring System): this program focuses on surveillance technologies for Brazil's borders, including command and control systems, sensors, radars, and secure communications; Army Aviation: this initiative involves fleet upgrades and the integration of drone technology; and ASTROS, plans are underway to incorporate loitering munitions into this artillery saturation rocket system.

What is evident is that there is a clear need from the Brazilian Army to be equipped to manage the sovereign threats across its territory and surrounding seas. The shifts in Brazilian defence decision-making are marked by the country's northern part and the highly protected Amazon region.

National security risks have intensified due to the escalated conflict over the Essequibo region, a territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana dating back to the nineteenth century. As tensions rise along the border, there is a renewed international push to bring both parties back to the table for "friendly" negotiations.

Regarding the wider factors shaping Brazilian defence procurement strategy, Bordon commented:

“Regional tensions (e.g., Venezuela-Guyana), global dynamics, and lessons learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are shaping defense planning. In Latin America, Argentina was the first country in the region to acquire loitering munitions in 2022, a capability that the Brazilian Army still lacks."

According to Bordon, the Brazilian Army is currently evaluating multiple procurement pathways. This includes a pre-qualification phase where the Army Manufacturing Directorate invited expressions of interest for attack drones, covering both munition-delivery systems and loitering munitions, which concluded on April 10th.

Furthermore, a request for information (RFI) specifically for loitering munitions was conducted via the Brazilian Army Commission in Washington.

A previous RFI was revoked during the 2022-23 period, fueling speculation that the Army was re-evaluating the necessary technical specifications and performance benchmarks for the required technology. It was during this time, as mentioned by Bordon, that Argentina acquired Israeli-company Hero-30 and Hero-120 loitering munitions.

A Middle Eastern player, which is strengthening its foothold in South America, is EDGE Group, the Abu Dhabi HQ company has a unit dedicated to the rapid development and testing of UAVs, including loitering munitions.

EDGE has signed a number of agreements with government states in Brazil securing its collaboration with industry and the military, further to its opening of a facility back in 2023 in the capital of Brasilia.

Interestingly, EDGE formalised plans with Indra to establish a new defence manufacturing company in Spain. Reports on the social media platform X have stated that EDGE is positioned itself to sell loitering munitions to Bogota, Colombia, but whether the hub in Spain support such procurement activities remains to be seen.

EDGE was contacted for comment, but at the time of publication had not responded.

While Latin America currently occupies only 0.8% of the global UAV market, the region is poised for a capability evolution. As international defence firms penetrate the market and establish local industrial hubs, the integration of loitering munitions into the military inventories of Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia is expected to accelerate.

This shift is driven by an urgent need for fleet modernisation and the requirement to address emerging territorial security threats. Whether regional political leadership will harmonise defence procurement with global expenditure trends remains an open question.

Ultimately, failure to incorporate the tactical lessons from the Ukraine-Russia conflict risks leaving South America's defence capabilities in a state of stagnation and ill-equipped for the demands of the modern era.

The US and Israel are among the few countries to develop and operationally deploy gallium-nitride (GaN)-based airborne EW jammers. These next-generation, wideband phased-array EW systems offer increased power, longer range, and directional jamming capability. They also feature cognitive artificial intelligence to support autonomous, real-time threat response.

In the ongoing conflict, the US would mostly rely on the recently operationalised AN/ALQ-249 EW systems developed by RTX while Israel, by contrast, would primarily deploy Rafael’s Sky Shield and IAI’s Scorpius SP (ELL-8222SB) escort jamming systems.

Particularly in the opening of the joint strike campaign, it is highly likely that the US repeated its electronic warfare [EW] effects against Iran, just as US Special Forces had against Venezuela’s tactical variant of the same air defence system, the tracked S-300VM, two months ago.

“Much like their counterparts in Venezuela, the remaining [Iranian] S-300 batteries would be highly vulnerable to the EW capabilities of US and Israeli aircraft, particularly the F-22, F-35, and the EA-18G Growler, itself a dedicated EW aircraft,” Kaye considered.

At the same time, however, Iranian S-300 batteries most likely used an indigenous radar system instead of an original Russian one, which would offer inferior detection capability.

In using these indigenous radar components instead, Kaye continued, “operators of the remaining batteries would have needed to increase their radar power output, which in turn would have revealed their position and left them open to strikes from AGM-88 anti-radiation missiles, which is fielded by both Israel and the US.” 

Australia could be one of the main beneficiaries of this dramatic increase in demand, where private companies and local governments alike are eager to expand the country’s nascent rare earths production. In 2021, Australia produced the fourth-most rare earths in the world. It’s total annual production of 19,958 tonnes remains significantly less than the mammoth 152,407 tonnes produced by China, but a dramatic improvement over the 1,995 tonnes produced domestically in 2011.

The dominance of China in the rare earths space has also encouraged other countries, notably the US, to look further afield for rare earth deposits to diversify their supply of the increasingly vital minerals. With the US eager to ringfence rare earth production within its allies as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, including potentially allowing the Department of Defense to invest in Australian rare earths, there could be an unexpected windfall for Australian rare earths producers.